Warren-Buffett
0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
View on Polymarket ↗All of this wallet's active positions are listed
Total Active Value
$89,455.07
Active Markets
58
Positions Listed
58
Last trade: Adds its Yes position — $80.40 on — Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?. Last big trade: Adds its Yes position — $1,105.65 on — Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?.
| Market | Outcome | Current Value | Size | Current Price | Cash P&L | Market End | Avg Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$11,523.63 | Size15,263.0891 | Current Price0.755 | Cash P&L $860.93 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.699 |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$8,950.01 | Size10,000.0062 | Current Price0.895 | Cash P&L $371.16 | Market End2028-01-01 | Avg Entry0.858 |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$8,082.11 | Size8,255.47 | Current Price0.979 | Cash P&L $948.38 | Market End2026-11-01 | Avg Entry0.864 |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$3,625.00 | Size5,000 | Current Price0.725 | Cash P&L $25.00 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.720 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$3,175.00 | Size5,000 | Current Price0.635 | Cash P&L $225.00 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.590 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$3,100.00 | Size4,000 | Current Price0.775 | Cash P&L -$263.63 | Market End2026-09-14 | Avg Entry0.841 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$2,932.50 | Size3,000 | Current Price0.978 | Cash P&L $7.50 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.975 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,744.96 | Size2,999.96 | Current Price0.915 | Cash P&L $15.00 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.910 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$2,644.60 | Size3,456.9925 | Current Price0.765 | Cash P&L $643.31 | Market End2027-01-05 | Avg Entry0.579 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,605.95 | Size22,660.4477 | Current Price0.115 | Cash P&L -$4,647.36 | Market End2026-11-01 | Avg Entry0.320 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,540.01 | Size4,000.0093 | Current Price0.635 | Cash P&L $845.60 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.424 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,424.49 | Size6,448.11 | Current Price0.376 | Cash P&L -$2,057.48 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.695 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$2,362.50 | Size2,499.9999 | Current Price0.945 | Cash P&L $327.51 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.814 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,242.37 | Size5,276.16 | Current Price0.425 | Cash P&L -$51.53 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.435 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$2,220.00 | Size6,000.0034 | Current Price0.370 | Cash P&L $336.55 | Market End2027-01-05 | Avg Entry0.314 |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,200.00 | Size20,000.0052 | Current Price0.110 | Cash P&L -$420.14 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.131 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$2,077.55 | Size11,871.7002 | Current Price0.175 | Cash P&L -$551.46 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.221 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$1,908.13 | Size10,042.7644 | Current Price0.190 | Cash P&L -$666.68 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.256 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$1,890.00 | Size2,000 | Current Price0.945 | Cash P&L $90.00 | Market End2027-01-05 | Avg Entry0.900 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$1,875.00 | Size3,750.0059 | Current Price0.500 | Cash P&L -$221.81 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.559 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$1,850.00 | Size10,000 | Current Price0.185 | Cash P&L $300.00 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.155 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$1,670.00 | Size2,000 | Current Price0.835 | Cash P&L $135.00 | Market End2027-01-05 | Avg Entry0.767 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$1,361.41 | Size108,912.595 | Current Price0.013 | Cash P&L -$3,854.31 | Market End2026-11-01 | Avg Entry0.048 |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$1,145.12 | Size8,808.65 | Current Price0.130 | Cash P&L $210.60 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.106 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$1,085.00 | Size7,000 | Current Price0.155 | Cash P&L -$84.99 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.167 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$994.75 | Size1,136.86 | Current Price0.875 | Cash P&L $6.57 | Market End2026-12-31 | Avg Entry0.869 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$770.00 | Size999.9982 | Current Price0.770 | Cash P&L $0.00 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.770 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$695.00 | Size1,000 | Current Price0.695 | Cash P&L -$5.00 | Market End2027-01-05 | Avg Entry0.700 |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$675.00 | Size4,999.9904 | Current Price0.135 | Cash P&L -$25.00 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.140 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$644.80 | Size650 | Current Price0.992 | Cash P&L $33.80 | Market End2026-11-01 | Avg Entry0.940 |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$636.79 | Size5,306.56 | Current Price0.120 | Cash P&L $59.89 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.109 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$636.35 | Size1,268.8857 | Current Price0.501 | Cash P&L -$97.07 | Market End2026-06-03 | Avg Entry0.578 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$631.23 | Size1,343.0331 | Current Price0.470 | Cash P&L -$21.78 | Market End2026-12-31 | Avg Entry0.486 |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$570.00 | Size4,750 | Current Price0.120 | Cash P&L -$95.00 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.140 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$560.89 | Size3,751.8 | Current Price0.149 | Cash P&L -$9.38 | Market End2028-11-08 | Avg Entry0.152 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$495.61 | Size593.5457 | Current Price0.835 | Cash P&L $72.94 | Market End2026-12-31 | Avg Entry0.712 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$462.48 | Size3,699.8072 | Current Price0.125 | Cash P&L -$1,697.21 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.584 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$435.00 | Size2,999.99 | Current Price0.145 | Cash P&L -$954.99 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.463 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$407.49 | Size499.99 | Current Price0.815 | Cash P&L $2.50 | Market End2026-10-31 | Avg Entry0.810 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$299.98 | Size3,999.6985 | Current Price0.075 | Cash P&L -$190.17 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.122 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$291.15 | Size299.9986 | Current Price0.971 | Cash P&L -$2.25 | Market End2026-12-31 | Avg Entry0.978 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$287.72 | Size299.4 | Current Price0.961 | Cash P&L $17.58 | Market End2026-10-22 | Avg Entry0.902 |
| Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$241.94 | Size448.03 | Current Price0.540 | Cash P&L $11.46 | Market End2026-12-01 | Avg Entry0.514 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$217.20 | Size299.9955 | Current Price0.724 | Cash P&L $19.20 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.660 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$180.14 | Size735.26 | Current Price0.245 | Cash P&L $6.32 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.236 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$177.50 | Size5,000 | Current Price0.035 | Cash P&L -$87.50 | Market End2026-11-04 | Avg Entry0.053 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: October ↗ | OutcomeNothing | Current Value$164.97 | Size169.98 | Current Price0.971 | Cash P&L $11.98 | Market End2026-10-31 | Avg Entry0.900 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$162.00 | Size1,200 | Current Price0.135 | Cash P&L -$138.00 | Market End2026-10-29 | Avg Entry0.250 |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$123.00 | Size144.7 | Current Price0.850 | Cash P&L $59.33 | Market End2026-12-01 | Avg Entry0.440 |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$105.00 | Size1,000.0104 | Current Price0.105 | Cash P&L -$105.00 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.210 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$97.30 | Size381.57 | Current Price0.255 | Cash P&L -$177.33 | Market End2026-10-25 | Avg Entry0.720 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$92.92 | Size2,815.9 | Current Price0.033 | Cash P&L -$329.46 | Market End2026-11-01 | Avg Entry0.150 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$45.00 | Size2,000 | Current Price0.022 | Cash P&L -$415.00 | Market End2026-10-30 | Avg Entry0.230 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Current Value$43.50 | Size50 | Current Price0.870 | Cash P&L -$1.50 | Market End2026-12-31 | Avg Entry0.900 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$31.36 | Size432.54 | Current Price0.072 | Cash P&L -$232.08 | Market End2026-10-22 | Avg Entry0.609 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$25.75 | Size65.19 | Current Price0.395 | Cash P&L $10.76 | Market End1970-01-01 | Avg Entry0.230 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$13.57 | Size75.4131 | Current Price0.180 | Cash P&L -$9.56 | Market End2027-01-01 | Avg Entry0.307 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Current Value$4.37 | Size486.09 | Current Price0.009 | Cash P&L -$45.68 | Market End2026-10-20 | Avg Entry0.103 |