Published artifact:
· run #1
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
Live trade history fetched live from Polymarket 2026-10-31 05:09 UTC — not part of the published run.
| Market | Outcome | State | Entry date | Avg Entry | Last trade / Close | Current / Close price | Current Value | Size | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-31 | 0.530 | 2026-10-31 | 0.570 | — | — | -$0.61 |
| Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-31 | 0.510 | 2026-10-31 | 0.430 | — | — | -$0.20 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | — | 0.685 | 2026-10-31 | 0.765 | $895.13 | 1,170.1025 | — |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-31 | 0.230 | 2026-10-31 | 0.235 | $204.35 | 869.5628 | — |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.793 | 2026-10-31 | 0.855 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-31 | 0.657 | 2026-10-31 | 0.665 | — | — | $0.10 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-02 House election by 40% or more? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-30 | 0.395 | 2026-10-31 | 0.325 | $90.06 | 277.1187 | — |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-20 | 0.132 | 2026-10-31 | 1.000 | — | — | $1,969.79 |
| Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-16 | 0.819 | 2026-10-30 | 0.922 | $815.13 | 883.611 | — |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-20 | 0.130 | 2026-10-30 | 0.021 | — | — | -$73.08 |
| Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 70% by November 2? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-19 | 0.626 | 2026-10-30 | 0.000 | — | — | -$348.77 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-16 | 0.115 | 2026-10-30 | 0.031 | — | — | -$85.45 |
| Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.164 | 2026-10-30 | 1.000 | — | — | $636.20 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-20 | 0.066 | 2026-10-30 | 0.050 | $78.79 | 1,575.84 | — |
| Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-30 | 0.391 | 2026-10-30 | 0.395 | $80.60 | 204.06 | — |
| Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-30 | 0.584 | 2026-10-30 | 0.550 | $943.63 | 1,715.6945 | — |
| Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.810 | 2026-10-30 | 0.906 | — | — | $20.39 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-30 | 0.431 | 2026-10-30 | 0.495 | $857.52 | 1,732.3713 | — |
| Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-23 | 0.744 | 2026-10-30 | 0.957 | — | — | $84.57 |
| Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-20 | 0.708 | 2026-10-30 | 0.996 | — | — | $678.61 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.020 | 2026-10-30 | 0.011 | — | — | -$8.98 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.678 | 2026-10-30 | 0.991 | — | — | $147.90 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-13 | 0.706 | 2026-10-30 | 0.688 | — | — | $17.28 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.727 | 2026-10-30 | 0.820 | — | — | $20.56 |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.859 | 2026-10-30 | 0.998 | — | — | $93.40 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET ↗ | OutcomeUp | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-30 | 0.500 | 2026-10-30 | 1.000 | — | — | $7.31 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET ↗ | OutcomeUp | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-30 | 0.211 | 2026-10-30 | 0.000 | — | — | $22.62 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.040 | 2026-10-30 | 0.013 | — | — | -$52.86 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-29 | 0.156 | 2026-10-30 | 0.035 | $20.70 | 600.0041 | — |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-30 | 0.667 | 2026-10-30 | 0.967 | — | — | $113.53 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET ↗ | OutcomeDown | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.439 | 2026-10-30 | 0.000 | — | — | -$87.88 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET ↗ | OutcomeDown | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.536 | 2026-10-30 | 1.000 | — | — | $1.13 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET ↗ | OutcomeDown | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.462 | 2026-10-29 | 1.000 | — | — | $24.68 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-29 | 0.423 | 2026-10-29 | 0.145 | — | — | -$3.21 |
| Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-28 | 0.434 | 2026-10-29 | 0.470 | $188.87 | 401.85 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-23 | 0.443 | 2026-10-29 | 0.460 | $278.07 | 604.5 | — |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-29 | 0.250 | 2026-10-29 | 0.850 | $1,360.00 | 1,600 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-28 | 0.829 | 2026-10-29 | 0.785 | $182.75 | 232.8 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-22 | 0.830 | 2026-10-29 | 0.860 | — | — | $3.00 |
| Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-13 | 0.430 | 2026-10-29 | 0.000 | — | — | $225.28 |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-27 | 0.540 | 2026-10-29 | 0.540 | $300.00 | 555.55 | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-29 | 0.549 | 2026-10-29 | 0.655 | $225.61 | 344.4356 | — |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-27 | 0.601 | 2026-10-29 | 0.620 | $737.86 | 1,190.09 | — |
| Gemini Carbon released by November 4, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-29 | 0.875 | 2026-10-29 | 0.946 | $322.49 | 340.9 | — |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.630 | 2026-10-29 | 0.000 | — | — | -$630.85 |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-29 | 0.612 | 2026-10-29 | 0.670 | $437.57 | 653.09 | — |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-28 | 0.128 | 2026-10-28 | 0.037 | $19.75 | 533.71 | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.270 | 2026-10-28 | 0.000 | — | — | -$11.49 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-27 | 0.526 | 2026-10-28 | 0.710 | $443.85 | 625.1353 | — |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.660 | 2026-10-28 | 0.785 | — | — | $9.62 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-28 | 0.550 | 2026-10-28 | 0.575 | — | — | -$18.09 |
| Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-28 | 0.287 | 2026-10-28 | 0.001 | $0.35 | 697.73 | — |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-28 | 0.189 | 2026-10-28 | 0.138 | $68.70 | 497.8 | — |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.410 | 2026-10-28 | 0.343 | — | — | -$15.06 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.560 | 2026-10-28 | 0.575 | — | — | -$204.23 |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.079 | 2026-10-27 | 0.001 | — | — | -$1,385.02 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-21 | 0.037 | 2026-10-27 | 1.000 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.142 | 2026-10-27 | 0.008 | — | — | -$114.98 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-27 | 0.188 | 2026-10-27 | 0.001 | $1.33 | 1,333.32 | — |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-27 | 0.072 | 2026-10-27 | 0.058 | $59.04 | 1,026.78 | — |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-27 | 0.344 | 2026-10-27 | 0.006 | — | — | -$164.16 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-15 | 0.321 | 2026-10-27 | 0.999 | — | — | $456.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-27 | 0.204 | 2026-10-27 | 0.160 | $182.59 | 1,141.19 | — |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-25 | 0.697 | 2026-10-27 | 1.000 | — | — | $949.32 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-22 | 0.405 | 2026-10-26 | 0.410 | $1,038.57 | 2,533.09 | — |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-26 | 0.193 | 2026-10-26 | 0.350 | $191.57 | 547.3448 | — |
| Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-26 | 0.985 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $5.83 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-26 | 0.571 | 2026-10-26 | 0.685 | $3,015.80 | 4,402.6273 | — |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 27, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-26 | 0.997 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $1.00 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-23 | 0.536 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | -$898.13 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-26 | 0.989 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $34.11 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-26 | 0.999 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $0.75 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-15 | 0.795 | 2026-10-26 | 0.785 | — | — | $4.43 |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.798 | 2026-10-26 | 0.994 | — | — | $5.11 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-24 | 0.515 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | -$159.75 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-24 | 0.570 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | -$99.82 |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-15 | 0.489 | 2026-10-26 | 0.746 | — | — | $443.69 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.542 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $75.12 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-25 | 0.160 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $525.00 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-24 | 0.210 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | -$51.58 |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-20 | 0.714 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | $233.93 |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-22 | 0.682 | 2026-10-26 | 0.983 | $264.42 | 269.1323 | — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-25 | 0.287 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $2,432.09 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-17 | 0.775 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | $372.87 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-25 | 0.483 | 2026-10-26 | 1.000 | — | — | $714.32 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-21 | 0.056 | 2026-10-26 | 0.000 | — | — | -$64.17 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-25 | 0.872 | 2026-10-25 | 1.000 | — | — | -$0.04 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Open | 2026-10-25 | 0.076 | 2026-10-25 | 0.070 | $81.12 | 1,158.83 | — |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.711 | 2026-10-25 | 0.000 | — | — | -$24.86 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-13 | 0.360 | 2026-10-25 | 1.000 | — | — | -$6.18 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-13 | 0.735 | 2026-10-25 | 0.000 | — | — | -$118.72 |
| Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 80% by November 2? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Open | 2026-10-18 | 0.838 | 2026-10-24 | 0.500 | $204.25 | 408.4948 | — |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-20 | 0.092 | 2026-10-24 | 0.000 | — | — | -$75.00 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-15 | 0.894 | 2026-10-24 | 1.000 | — | — | $143.93 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-15 | 0.590 | 2026-10-24 | 0.765 | — | — | $28.71 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-21 | 0.580 | 2026-10-24 | 1.000 | — | — | $27.03 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-17 | 0.200 | 2026-10-23 | 0.003 | — | — | -$106.35 |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.600 | 2026-10-23 | 0.009 | — | — | -$57.30 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-20 | 0.625 | 2026-10-23 | 1.000 | — | — | $77.31 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 20? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | 2026-10-22 | 0.441 | 2026-10-22 | 0.000 | — | — | -$247.43 |
Some rows predate the bounded trade scan, so their date cells show — — the exact date is older than the reachable window, and we never substitute a snapshot date for it.
Showing at most 100 rows, one per market and outcome, newest last trade first. Trade history is live Polymarket data, not part of the published run; the current values above belong to no published ranking. Methodology.