AI Questions by Whale Capital
19 ai questions currently hold a whale position, out of the 657 active markets indexed by our system. See all questions.
Whale in AI = a single active position of at least $1,250.00. below the general default
How this category's bar was set
That is below the general default of $2,500.00: this category holds fewer than 25 positions at the general bar, so the sync stepped its bar down for this category only. Whales are therefore not comparable across categories. Methodology.
Published artifact: 2026-10-10 22:09 UTC
· run #1
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
| Rank | Question | Ask | Whale Capital | Whale Holders | Largest Position | Outcomes USD | Outcomes N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank1 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 1,080 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Anthropic: 0.961OpenAI: 0.044 Anthropic 0.956/0.961 · OpenAI 0.039/0.044 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $55,053.12 Anthropic: $55,053.12OpenAI: $0.00 Anthropic $55,053.12 · OpenAI $0.00 | Whale Holders 11 Anthropic: 11OpenAI: 0 Anthropic 11 · OpenAI 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $24,540.19 wallet 0xa1089452f0224a9973505f2d4347c2ea2f08abd3 on Anthropic | Outcomes USD Anthropic: $99,514.99OpenAI: $4,282.06 Total across all outcomes: $103,797.05 | Outcomes N Anthropic: 224OpenAI: 159 Total across all outcomes: 383 positions |
| Rank2 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 312 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.960No: 0.068 Yes 0.932/0.960 · No 0.040/0.068 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $17,701.50 Yes: $17,701.50No: $0.00 Yes $17,701.50 · No $0.00 | Whale Holders 4 Yes: 4No: 0 Yes 4 · No 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $9,024.67 wallet 0xfc50757cbbe26b2b77a29975ae2ebdf35080277b on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $27,616.60No: $482.46 Total across all outcomes: $28,099.06 | Outcomes N Yes: 73No: 27 Total across all outcomes: 100 positions |
| Rank3 | Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 464 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.080No: 0.930 Yes 0.070/0.080 · No 0.920/0.930 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $15,110.20 Yes: $0.00No: $15,110.20 Yes $0.00 · No $15,110.20 | Whale Holders 4 Yes: 0No: 4 Yes 0 · No 4 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $9,260.97 wallet 0xa16354193f1f166db6cc24d932d8b091296ade8d on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,827.90No: $22,775.23 Total across all outcomes: $24,603.13 | Outcomes N Yes: 51No: 114 Total across all outcomes: 165 positions |
| Rank4 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 419 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.570No: 0.540 Yes 0.460/0.570 · No 0.430/0.540 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $10,473.36 Yes: $5,399.50No: $5,073.86 Yes $5,399.50 · No $5,073.86 | Whale Holders 4 Yes: 2No: 2 Yes 2 · No 2 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $3,193.92 wallet 0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992 on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $7,811.51No: $8,464.60 Total across all outcomes: $16,276.11 | Outcomes N Yes: 50No: 38 Total across all outcomes: 88 positions |
| Rank5 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 281 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.231No: 0.797 Yes 0.203/0.231 · No 0.769/0.797 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $8,337.22 Yes: $2,689.02No: $5,648.21 Yes $2,689.02 · No $5,648.21 | Whale Holders 3 Yes: 1No: 2 Yes 1 · No 2 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $3,188.92 wallet 0xff7ca9cd180d33119e653e3eb50555a3e2ccb233 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $6,653.32No: $6,958.32 Total across all outcomes: $13,611.64 | Outcomes N Yes: 50No: 19 Total across all outcomes: 69 positions |
| Rank6 | Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 352 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.200No: 0.840 Yes 0.160/0.200 · No 0.800/0.840 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $7,650.68 Yes: $0.00No: $7,650.68 Yes $0.00 · No $7,650.68 | Whale Holders 4 Yes: 0No: 4 Yes 0 · No 4 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,711.02 wallet 0x62f6e32528e89b97dceab36b43b7821283696300 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $3,059.03No: $14,479.01 Total across all outcomes: $17,538.03 | Outcomes N Yes: 46No: 80 Total across all outcomes: 126 positions |
| Rank7 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 464 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.788No: 0.213 Yes 0.787/0.788 · No 0.212/0.213 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $5,412.68 Yes: $5,412.68No: $0.00 Yes $5,412.68 · No $0.00 | Whale Holders 3 Yes: 3No: 0 Yes 3 · No 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,202.07 wallet 0xa3ccb7ac64c5e3380709d57b5e2404f5819e447c on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $8,352.74No: $2,249.66 Total across all outcomes: $10,602.41 | Outcomes N Yes: 57No: 47 Total across all outcomes: 104 positions |
| Rank8 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 256 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.130No: 0.880 Yes 0.120/0.130 · No 0.870/0.880 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $5,303.72 Yes: $0.00No: $5,303.72 Yes $0.00 · No $5,303.72 | Whale Holders 3 Yes: 0No: 3 Yes 0 · No 3 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,355.38 wallet 0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,498.15No: $10,532.46 Total across all outcomes: $12,030.61 | Outcomes N Yes: 43No: 47 Total across all outcomes: 90 positions |
| Rank9 | Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 130 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.036No: 0.977 Yes 0.023/0.036 · No 0.964/0.977 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $4,019.94 Yes: $0.00No: $4,019.94 Yes $0.00 · No $4,019.94 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Yes 0 · No 2 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,717.40 wallet 0x3eae57986be5e0ca435102ffe1f14206ffa2e2ed on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $137.45No: $4,793.68 Total across all outcomes: $4,931.13 | Outcomes N Yes: 15No: 15 Total across all outcomes: 30 positions |
| Rank10 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 211 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.067No: 0.942 Yes 0.058/0.067 · No 0.933/0.942 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $3,725.53 Yes: $0.00No: $3,725.53 Yes $0.00 · No $3,725.53 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Yes 0 · No 2 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $1,893.75 wallet 0x1cac5c537efec302c6505dd92f907d0193426f43 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $361.03No: $5,446.78 Total across all outcomes: $5,807.80 | Outcomes N Yes: 19No: 21 Total across all outcomes: 40 positions |
| Rank11 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 366 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.400No: 0.640 Yes 0.360/0.400 · No 0.600/0.640 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $3,621.72 Yes: $1,932.35No: $1,689.37 Yes $1,932.35 · No $1,689.37 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 1No: 1 Yes 1 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $1,932.35 wallet 0x97f3f9f15c0063710c60d3ac9c40d17f4ba60eba on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $2,965.22No: $4,949.34 Total across all outcomes: $7,914.56 | Outcomes N Yes: 33No: 35 Total across all outcomes: 68 positions |
| Rank12 | Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 192 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.770No: 0.300 Yes 0.700/0.770 · No 0.230/0.300 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $3,570.97 Yes: $3,570.97No: $0.00 Yes $3,570.97 · No $0.00 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 1No: 0 Yes 1 · No 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $3,570.97 wallet 0x97f3f9f15c0063710c60d3ac9c40d17f4ba60eba on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $6,402.61No: $620.16 Total across all outcomes: $7,022.77 | Outcomes N Yes: 33No: 26 Total across all outcomes: 59 positions |
| Rank13 | Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 194 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.160No: 0.900 Yes 0.100/0.160 · No 0.840/0.900 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $2,903.29 Yes: $0.00No: $2,903.29 Yes $0.00 · No $2,903.29 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,903.29 wallet 0x28b291aa82da13e1d58993873806c92908d5eb4f on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,380.52No: $3,218.68 Total across all outcomes: $4,599.21 | Outcomes N Yes: 45No: 15 Total across all outcomes: 60 positions |
| Rank14 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 349 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.564No: 0.449 Yes 0.551/0.564 · No 0.436/0.449 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $2,865.61 Yes: $2,865.61No: $0.00 Yes $2,865.61 · No $0.00 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 2No: 0 Yes 2 · No 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $1,538.20 wallet 0xbfb186d4bd1980da3d4058d5ede03a22e60642b9 on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $10,460.46No: $1,897.36 Total across all outcomes: $12,357.83 | Outcomes N Yes: 48No: 28 Total across all outcomes: 76 positions |
| Rank15 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 468 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.120No: 0.900 Yes 0.100/0.120 · No 0.880/0.900 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $2,643.98 Yes: $0.00No: $2,643.98 Yes $0.00 · No $2,643.98 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,643.98 wallet 0x7f334b1b90f493088b52a7611f75864c6f23914e on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,310.95No: $10,671.89 Total across all outcomes: $11,982.84 | Outcomes N Yes: 67No: 74 Total across all outcomes: 141 positions |
| Rank16 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 302 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.190No: 0.850 Yes 0.150/0.190 · No 0.810/0.850 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $2,177.07 Yes: $0.00No: $2,177.07 Yes $0.00 · No $2,177.07 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $2,177.07 wallet 0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,565.77No: $7,655.87 Total across all outcomes: $9,221.64 | Outcomes N Yes: 18No: 37 Total across all outcomes: 55 positions |
| Rank17 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 216 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.027No: 0.974 Yes 0.026/0.027 · No 0.973/0.974 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $1,796.27 Yes: $0.00No: $1,796.27 Yes $0.00 · No $1,796.27 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $1,796.27 wallet 0x832bbb891caf3a24c7d1915d9f6369c4949b5c91 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $630.96No: $2,362.13 Total across all outcomes: $2,993.09 | Outcomes N Yes: 24No: 13 Total across all outcomes: 37 positions |
| Rank18 | Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 58 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.032No: 0.971 Yes 0.029/0.032 · No 0.968/0.971 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $1,424.42 Yes: $0.00No: $1,424.42 Yes $0.00 · No $1,424.42 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $1,424.42 wallet 0xe41adddfd269f811c8dc173237ed8c4f213d29bd on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $46.68No: $1,508.19 Total across all outcomes: $1,554.87 | Outcomes N Yes: 5No: 6 Total across all outcomes: 11 positions |
| Rank19 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 166 rows held · Ends 2028-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.018No: 0.993 Yes 0.007/0.018 · No 0.982/0.993 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $1,324.80 Yes: $0.00No: $1,324.80 Yes $0.00 · No $1,324.80 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $1,324.80 wallet 0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $256.71No: $1,443.00 Total across all outcomes: $1,699.70 | Outcomes N Yes: 36No: 10 Total across all outcomes: 46 positions |