Geopolitics Questions by Whale Capital

19 geopolitics questions currently hold a whale position, out of the 657 active markets indexed by our system. See all questions.

Whale in Geopolitics = a single active position of at least $2,500.00.

How this category's bar was set

That is the general bar: this category holds at least 25 positions at it, so no category-specific step-down was needed. Methodology.

Published artifact: 2026-10-10 22:09 UTC · run #1
657 questions indexed · 0 failed

3 of the 50 geopolitics questions this run fetched hit the page cap, so their holder counts and capital are lower bounds; every marked row states its own coverage in the hint on its question. Methodology.

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Ranked by the capital whales have positioned in the question. A question belongs to exactly one curated category. Methodology.

Rank Question Ask Whale Capital Whale Holders Largest Position Outcomes USD Outcomes N
Rank1 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Ask Yes: 0.029No: 0.972 Whale Capital $6,973,602.98 Yes: $150,207.66No: $6,823,395.32 Whale Holders 187 Yes: 17No: 170 Largest Position $1,149,927.89 Outcomes USD Yes: $210,010.64No: $7,166,878.60 Outcomes N Yes: 1,230No: 2,402
Rank2 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.170No: 0.840 Whale Capital $6,545,195.39 Yes: $971,816.77No: $5,573,378.63 Whale Holders 300 Yes: 47No: 254 Largest Position $472,808.26 Outcomes USD Yes: $1,181,256.78No: $5,980,242.16 Outcomes N Yes: 3,101No: 2,870
Rank3 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? truncated Ask Yes: 0.022No: 0.979 Whale Capital $5,139,493.96 Yes: $84,917.49No: $5,054,576.47 Whale Holders 158 Yes: 9No: 149 Largest Position $541,991.05 Outcomes USD Yes: $129,959.97No: $5,555,385.21 Outcomes N Yes: 1,664No: 6,183
Rank4 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? truncated Ask Yes: 0.050No: 0.960 Whale Capital $4,176,969.01 Yes: $0.00No: $4,176,969.01 Whale Holders 148 Yes: 0No: 148 Largest Position $564,880.34 Outcomes USD Yes: $13,443.26No: $4,444,592.53 Outcomes N Yes: 1,590No: 1,845
Rank5 Xi Jinping out before 2027? truncated Ask Yes: 0.030No: 0.971 Whale Capital $3,753,558.05 Yes: $98,484.66No: $3,655,073.39 Whale Holders 170 Yes: 10No: 160 Largest Position $324,126.52 Outcomes USD Yes: $125,323.53No: $4,074,346.94 Outcomes N Yes: 438No: 4,062
Rank6 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Ask Yes: 0.080No: 0.930 Whale Capital $619,891.34 Yes: $28,581.49No: $591,309.85 Whale Holders 57 Yes: 6No: 51 Largest Position $169,378.63 Outcomes USD Yes: $57,576.88No: $711,556.84 Outcomes N Yes: 542No: 781
Rank7 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.090No: 0.930 Whale Capital $189,593.47 Yes: $0.00No: $189,593.47 Whale Holders 20 Yes: 0No: 20 Largest Position $47,126.93 Outcomes USD Yes: $22,307.84No: $257,671.31 Outcomes N Yes: 343No: 498
Rank8 Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Ask Yes: 0.040No: 0.967 Whale Capital $175,368.47 Yes: $0.00No: $175,368.47 Whale Holders 17 Yes: 0No: 17 Largest Position $45,885.94 Outcomes USD Yes: $8,110.20No: $215,635.39 Outcomes N Yes: 105No: 335
Rank9 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Ask Yes: 0.390No: 0.620 Whale Capital $173,855.80 Yes: $63,459.67No: $110,396.13 Whale Holders 22 Yes: 11No: 11 Largest Position $48,384.30 Outcomes USD Yes: $120,461.91No: $192,549.39 Outcomes N Yes: 751No: 953
Rank10 NATO article 5 before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.059No: 0.948 Whale Capital $115,841.70 Yes: $2,804.13No: $113,037.57 Whale Holders 7 Yes: 1No: 6 Largest Position $31,771.19 Outcomes USD Yes: $7,264.72No: $123,865.42 Outcomes N Yes: 63No: 64
Rank11 Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.048No: 0.960 Whale Capital $107,588.93 Yes: $0.00No: $107,588.93 Whale Holders 7 Yes: 0No: 7 Largest Position $70,909.07 Outcomes USD Yes: $5,803.41No: $130,600.79 Outcomes N Yes: 189No: 581
Rank12 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.061No: 0.965 Whale Capital $47,098.49 Yes: $0.00No: $47,098.49 Whale Holders 3 Yes: 0No: 3 Largest Position $35,789.64 Outcomes USD Yes: $3,184.06No: $62,938.79 Outcomes N Yes: 94No: 253
Rank13 Yoon out of custody before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.050No: 0.951 Whale Capital $40,148.36 Yes: $0.00No: $40,148.36 Whale Holders 5 Yes: 0No: 5 Largest Position $13,610.26 Outcomes USD Yes: $2,866.34No: $55,751.62 Outcomes N Yes: 23No: 78
Rank14 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.040No: 0.969 Whale Capital $38,639.60 Yes: $0.00No: $38,639.60 Whale Holders 6 Yes: 0No: 6 Largest Position $15,549.68 Outcomes USD Yes: $1,918.55No: $53,013.35 Outcomes N Yes: 97No: 160
Rank15 Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Ask Yes: 0.029No: 0.981 Whale Capital $13,608.44 Yes: $0.00No: $13,608.44 Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Largest Position $10,017.00 Outcomes USD Yes: $2,403.86No: $103,203.75 Outcomes N Yes: 210No: 3,429
Rank16 Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Ask Yes: 0.140No: 0.900 Whale Capital $8,428.19 Yes: $0.00No: $8,428.19 Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Largest Position $5,338.75 Outcomes USD Yes: $1,508.91No: $11,145.17 Outcomes N Yes: 59No: 37
Rank17 U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.040No: 0.970 Whale Capital $8,332.03 Yes: $0.00No: $8,332.03 Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Largest Position $4,521.21 Outcomes USD Yes: $359.41No: $13,204.50 Outcomes N Yes: 22No: 385
Rank18 Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Ask Yes: 0.049No: 0.968 Whale Capital $4,090.63 Yes: $0.00No: $4,090.63 Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Largest Position $4,090.63 Outcomes USD Yes: $534.28No: $12,962.44 Outcomes N Yes: 45No: 59
Rank19 Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Ask Yes: 0.971No: 0.159 Whale Capital $3,135.74 Yes: $3,135.74No: $0.00 Whale Holders 1 Yes: 1No: 0 Largest Position $3,135.74 Outcomes USD Yes: $16,268.38No: $1,484.49 Outcomes N Yes: 617No: 258