Published artifact:
· run #1
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
Live trade history fetched live from Polymarket 2026-10-29 21:40 UTC — not part of the published run.
| Market | Outcome | State | Entry date | Avg Entry | Last trade / Close | Current / Close price | Current Value | Size | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.660 | 2026-10-29 | 0.018 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.186 | 2026-10-29 | 0.615 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 210,000 and 230,000? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.596 | 2026-10-29 | 0.620 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.143 | 2026-10-29 | 0.022 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.023 | 2026-10-29 | 0.011 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 29? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.490 | 2026-10-29 | 0.002 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.048 | 2026-10-29 | 0.087 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.989 | 2026-10-29 | 0.998 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Together win 11-13 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.190 | 2026-10-29 | 0.035 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.669 | 2026-10-29 | 0.635 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.019 | 2026-10-29 | 0.025 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.974 | 2026-10-29 | 0.999 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.770 | 2026-10-29 | 0.620 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.076 | 2026-10-29 | 0.011 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.530 | 2026-10-29 | 0.625 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Greece win 2026-27 Nations League Group A2? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.731 | 2026-10-29 | 0.722 | — | — | $0.00 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.246 | 2026-10-29 | 0.049 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.540 | 2026-10-29 | 0.050 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 30%-35%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.947 | 2026-10-29 | 0.950 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.018 | 2026-10-29 | 0.025 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 29? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.040 | 2026-10-29 | 0.001 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.026 | 2026-10-29 | 0.018 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.078 | 2026-10-29 | 0.017 | — | — | $0.00 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.174 | 2026-10-29 | 0.058 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.064 | 2026-10-29 | 0.050 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Together win 9-11% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.103 | 2026-10-29 | 0.035 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.011 | 2026-10-29 | 0.008 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.789 | 2026-10-29 | 0.762 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.029 | 2026-10-29 | 0.021 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.566 | 2026-10-29 | 0.054 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.012 | 2026-10-29 | 0.005 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.950 | 2026-10-29 | 0.735 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on October 29? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.051 | 2026-10-29 | 0.003 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.033 | 2026-10-29 | 0.046 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.076 | 2026-10-29 | 0.026 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.047 | 2026-10-29 | 0.026 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.049 | 2026-10-29 | 0.009 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.680 | 2026-10-29 | 0.875 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.070 | 2026-10-29 | 0.009 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.019 | 2026-10-29 | 0.013 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 29? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.807 | 2026-10-29 | 0.004 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.167 | 2026-10-29 | 0.305 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.885 | 2026-10-29 | 0.015 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO on November 25, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.079 | 2026-10-29 | 0.046 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on October 29? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.740 | 2026-10-29 | 0.996 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-10 House election by 0%-5%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.897 | 2026-10-29 | 0.843 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.030 | 2026-10-29 | 0.004 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.470 | 2026-10-29 | 0.520 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.978 | 2026-10-29 | 0.982 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.142 | 2026-10-29 | 0.230 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.135 | 2026-10-29 | 0.023 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.660 | 2026-10-29 | 0.620 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.546 | 2026-10-29 | 0.249 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.870 | 2026-10-29 | 0.750 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 15%-20%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.690 | 2026-10-29 | 0.660 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.855 | 2026-10-29 | 0.865 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.880 | 2026-10-29 | 0.875 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.670 | 2026-10-29 | 0.640 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.910 | 2026-10-29 | 0.998 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.840 | 2026-10-29 | 0.835 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.638 | 2026-10-29 | 0.631 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Campeche Congress election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.686 | 2026-10-29 | 0.765 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.959 | 2026-10-29 | 0.955 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Kenneth Walker III win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.715 | 2026-10-29 | 0.824 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.879 | 2026-10-29 | 0.946 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.175 | 2026-10-29 | 0.060 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.460 | 2026-10-29 | 0.540 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.671 | 2026-10-29 | 0.605 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.759 | 2026-10-29 | 0.625 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will PDC win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.718 | 2026-10-29 | 0.620 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Yashar win 28-29 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.933 | 2026-10-29 | 1.000 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.554 | 2026-10-29 | 0.575 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.587 | 2026-10-29 | 0.492 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.900 | 2026-10-29 | 0.890 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.946 | 2026-10-29 | 0.949 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 30? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.940 | 2026-10-29 | 0.753 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.119 | 2026-10-29 | 0.254 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.945 | 2026-10-29 | 0.950 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.913 | 2026-10-29 | 0.940 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists per game in 2026-27? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.758 | 2026-10-29 | 0.464 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Finance? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.951 | 2026-10-29 | 0.996 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.948 | 2026-10-29 | 0.961 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.057 | 2026-10-29 | 0.054 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.807 | 2026-10-29 | 0.170 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.525 | 2026-10-29 | 0.365 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.660 | 2026-10-29 | 0.530 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Liberal–National hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.787 | 2026-10-29 | 0.855 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 25%-30%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.740 | 2026-10-29 | 0.855 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.125 | 2026-10-29 | 0.095 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.125 | 2026-10-29 | 0.120 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.791 | 2026-10-29 | 0.820 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026? ↗ | OutcomeYes | Closed / Settled | — | 0.107 | 2026-10-29 | 0.195 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will The Democrats win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.941 | 2026-10-29 | 1.000 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-02 House election by 15%-20%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.728 | 2026-10-29 | 0.780 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.883 | 2026-10-29 | 0.907 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.978 | 2026-10-29 | 0.960 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.689 | 2026-10-29 | 0.715 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.897 | 2026-10-29 | 0.906 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Querétaro Congress election? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.939 | 2026-10-29 | 0.925 | — | — | $0.00 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? ↗ | OutcomeNo | Closed / Settled | — | 0.703 | 2026-10-29 | 0.086 | — | — | $0.00 |
Some rows predate the bounded trade scan, so their date cells show — — the exact date is older than the reachable window, and we never substitute a snapshot date for it.
Showing at most 100 rows, one per market and outcome, newest last trade first. Trade history is live Polymarket data, not part of the published run; the current values above belong to no published ranking. Methodology.