Weather Questions by Whale Capital
11 weather questions currently hold a whale position, out of the 657 active markets indexed by our system. See all questions.
Whale in Weather = a single active position of at least $2,500.00.
How this category's bar was set
That is the general bar: this category holds at least 25 positions at it, so no category-specific step-down was needed. Methodology.
Published artifact: 2026-10-10 22:09 UTC
· run #1
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
657 questions indexed · 0 failed
| Rank | Question | Ask | Whale Capital | Whale Holders | Largest Position | Outcomes USD | Outcomes N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank1 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 10,682 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.014No: 0.988 Yes 0.012/0.014 · No 0.986/0.988 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $1,026,939.87 Yes: $0.00No: $1,026,939.87 Yes $0.00 · No $1,026,939.87 | Whale Holders 48 Yes: 0No: 48 Yes 0 · No 48 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $98,699.58 wallet 0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $14,036.89No: $1,104,366.05 Total across all outcomes: $1,118,402.94 | Outcomes N Yes: 1,098No: 1,426 Total across all outcomes: 2,524 positions |
| Rank2 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 3,027 rows held · Ends 2027-02-01 | Ask Yes: 0.014No: 0.989 Yes 0.011/0.014 · No 0.986/0.989 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $60,227.75 Yes: $0.00No: $60,227.75 Yes $0.00 · No $60,227.75 | Whale Holders 5 Yes: 0No: 5 Yes 0 · No 5 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $29,213.62 wallet 0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,216.90No: $97,397.65 Total across all outcomes: $98,614.55 | Outcomes N Yes: 55No: 2,280 Total across all outcomes: 2,335 positions |
| Rank3 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 816 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.031No: 0.988 Yes 0.012/0.031 · No 0.969/0.988 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $49,806.11 Yes: $0.00No: $49,806.11 Yes $0.00 · No $49,806.11 | Whale Holders 4 Yes: 0No: 4 Yes 0 · No 4 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $26,273.15 wallet 0xb1df81b0494174b9c67576b533548509d59428b7 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,536.92No: $70,725.38 Total across all outcomes: $72,262.30 | Outcomes N Yes: 76No: 305 Total across all outcomes: 381 positions |
| Rank4 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 648 rows held · Ends 2027-02-01 | Ask Yes: 0.037No: 0.975 Yes 0.025/0.037 · No 0.963/0.975 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $26,019.73 Yes: $0.00No: $26,019.73 Yes $0.00 · No $26,019.73 | Whale Holders 6 Yes: 0No: 6 Yes 0 · No 6 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $7,193.28 wallet 0x21d0c129deb8a7f7e1569045200d20e23862ce91 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,686.02No: $53,615.93 Total across all outcomes: $55,301.96 | Outcomes N Yes: 79No: 163 Total across all outcomes: 242 positions |
| Rank5 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 576 rows held · Ends 2027-03-01 | Ask Yes: 0.080No: 0.940 Yes 0.060/0.080 · No 0.920/0.940 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $23,028.49 Yes: $0.00No: $23,028.49 Yes $0.00 · No $23,028.49 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Yes 0 · No 2 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $19,509.16 wallet 0xcb894d56b6ed7f458e8534636a086b65e915a2e8 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $2,733.22No: $36,490.20 Total across all outcomes: $39,223.42 | Outcomes N Yes: 44No: 141 Total across all outcomes: 185 positions |
| Rank6 | Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 414 rows held · Ends 2027-04-01 | Ask Yes: 0.070No: 0.940 Yes 0.060/0.070 · No 0.930/0.940 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $12,740.78 Yes: $0.00No: $12,740.78 Yes $0.00 · No $12,740.78 | Whale Holders 3 Yes: 0No: 3 Yes 0 · No 3 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $6,296.89 wallet 0x21d0c129deb8a7f7e1569045200d20e23862ce91 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,177.41No: $17,315.83 Total across all outcomes: $18,493.23 | Outcomes N Yes: 56No: 67 Total across all outcomes: 123 positions |
| Rank7 | Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 383 rows held · Ends 2027-01-08 | Ask Yes: 0.650No: 0.480 Yes 0.520/0.650 · No 0.350/0.480 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $11,816.65 Yes: $11,816.65No: $0.00 Yes $11,816.65 · No $0.00 | Whale Holders 3 Yes: 3No: 0 Yes 3 · No 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $5,088.62 wallet 0xf2f6af4f27ec2dcf4072095ab804016e14cd5817 on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $15,466.32No: $733.85 Total across all outcomes: $16,200.17 | Outcomes N Yes: 116No: 23 Total across all outcomes: 139 positions |
| Rank8 | Natural Disaster in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 1,081 rows held · Ends 2027-03-01 | Ask Yes: 0.070No: 0.940 Yes 0.060/0.070 · No 0.930/0.940 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $8,204.67 Yes: $0.00No: $8,204.67 Yes $0.00 · No $8,204.67 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $8,204.67 wallet 0x741ea111fb6f1b53115986941f1974ecc38671b6 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $1,512.89No: $22,751.30 Total across all outcomes: $24,264.18 | Outcomes N Yes: 139No: 104 Total across all outcomes: 243 positions |
| Rank9 | Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 350 rows held · Ends 2027-01-01 | Ask Yes: 0.026No: 0.975 Yes 0.025/0.026 · No 0.974/0.975 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $7,328.86 Yes: $0.00No: $7,328.86 Yes $0.00 · No $7,328.86 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 0No: 2 Yes 0 · No 2 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $4,315.07 wallet 0x04ccfb3e0efcdc017db827a9ca2309d374cc48ac on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $401.27No: $16,025.52 Total across all outcomes: $16,426.80 | Outcomes N Yes: 58No: 33 Total across all outcomes: 91 positions |
| Rank10 | Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 237 rows held · Ends 2026-12-01 | Ask Yes: 0.993No: 0.040 Yes 0.960/0.993 · No 0.007/0.040 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $6,967.00 Yes: $6,967.00No: $0.00 Yes $6,967.00 · No $0.00 | Whale Holders 2 Yes: 2No: 0 Yes 2 · No 0 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $4,378.40 wallet 0xf2aa8381a08ec33467fbcdd0843aa31cb8d521fb on Yes | Outcomes USD Yes: $10,199.74No: $57.30 Total across all outcomes: $10,257.04 | Outcomes N Yes: 29No: 8 Total across all outcomes: 37 positions |
| Rank11 | 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? — opens on Polymarket in a new tab complete, 3,302 rows held · Ends 2027-03-01 | Ask Yes: 0.018No: 0.987 Yes 0.013/0.018 · No 0.982/0.987 — quotes from the published pass (22:00) | Whale Capital $6,513.49 Yes: $0.00No: $6,513.49 Yes $0.00 · No $6,513.49 | Whale Holders 1 Yes: 0No: 1 Yes 0 · No 1 — a wallet holding both sides counts on both. | Largest Position $6,513.49 wallet 0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 on No | Outcomes USD Yes: $202.61No: $12,944.92 Total across all outcomes: $13,147.53 | Outcomes N Yes: 26No: 1,597 Total across all outcomes: 1,623 positions |